Buy your GASOLINE TODAY!!!!!!

[RGDoherty]

Phase III evac in the gulf starting tomorrow. Gasoline prices will jump.

[TheKing]

Why are they evacuating?

[RGDoherty]

The storm forming up in the Florida Keys......I happen to know 200,000 barrels of oil a day going to South Louisiana is going to stop at roughly 04:00 tomorrow.

[RGDoherty]

Eastern Production Unit GOM....Mississippi Canyon. Won't get into numbers but I know 3 platforms shutting in to evac tomorrow......

[aaron]

Why do people believe that the oil that comes out of the Gulf makes a difference? 200,000 barrels is 1% of the daily production of oil.

[RGDoherty]

fotno, invite me to be a friend......I'll pm you more info.

[RGDoherty]

It's all it takes for the commodity brokers in NY to hear........and.....this two hundred K happens to supply 3 million fill ups a day in THIS region.

[TheKing]

try to find, and watch the alan greenspan interview with jon stewart on yesterdays comedy central

ah what the hell...ill find it

watch this http://www.comedycentral.com/motherload/index.jhtml?ml_video=102970

he does a good job of explaining how its all based on the irrationality and insecurity of people more than anything else

[RGDoherty]

O.K. King, I'm just trying to let people know that this is going to occur. And yes there will be a reaction. By the people that price the Gasoline. Their reaction will be "Raise the prices".

[Natural Sunshine]

Lovely, just lovely!!

[aaron]

try to find, and watch the alan greenspan interview with jon stewart on yesterdays comedy central

ah what the hell...ill find it

watch this http://www.comedycentral.com/motherload/index.jhtml?ml_video=102970

he does a good job of explaining how its all based on the irrationality and insecurity of people more than anything else

Right, and don't you think these threads fuel that? There's no reason to worry about gas prices when a hurricane enters the Gulf. If the entire gulf stopped giving us oil, it's still only 8% of the total.

[RGDoherty]

Would y'all prefer not to have this information? If so, no problem, I'll stop trying to save a buck for most.

[Pirate_129]

Thanks for the info RG. Regardless of people wanting to debate how irrational and knee jerk a rise in gas prices will be because of it, that doesn't change the fact that prices do typically rise because of storms in the gulf. The bottom line to most folks is saving money and I think that's what your intent was, not to fuel hysteria as implied. :smt023

[Ted]

Huh???
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Pirate_129]

Maybe this?



A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN GULF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

[RGDoherty]

Disturbance # 50 is currently weak but slowly strengthening near the Southeast Coast of Florida. Conditions are favorable for more intensification today. The main forecast problem now is identifying where the center of #50 is located. The weakness of #50 precludes a clear identification of the center. Tracking models are presenting a few different scenarios based upon the initial position and motion of the center. A more northern track across FL seems to correspond to a shorter track across the Gulf and a weaker system making landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans. A more Southern track across FL may indicate a longer track across the Gulf with warmer water and longer time to strengthen. It is not yet clear which scenario to favor. Movement of #50 today will be critiical to determine the area of the Gulf most at risk.

This is the report from a meteorologist that has the ear of a Major Oil Company. The oil company is listening and moving to phase III This report was as of 10:22 am, Phase III was called for at 16:00 I can only assume that the update isn't as rosey.


That being said......I'm not trying to debate the issue, just stating facts. This is shutting in wells, and that will drive prices up, knee jerk reaction or not.

[Ted]

Yeah, I saw that.:smt001

The whole text:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN GULF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM.

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


We will see.

[Ted]

Just found this (http://www.lloyds.com/CmsPhoenix/DowJonesArticle.aspx?id=367463).

[petalgirl00]

I still think we should burn trash for fuel.

[RGDoherty]

non essentials is what the report was about Ted. I'm telling you that Essentials are starting to leave now. Non Essentials leave, we don't paint handrails. Essentials leave, we don't pump oil.

I leave this thread to it's own, hating that it started debate when all I was trying to do was save the members of this site a buck or two.

[fuzzis]

I need to fill up, so I suppose I'll go and do that. I'm supposed to be in Ocean Springs gettin' my hair did on Saturday. Think y'all can make it hold off that long? :smt118

[Ted]

HiYa Rob.:smt001

We're not debating it.
You gave us the heads up, which we greatly appreciate, and now we're gathering and sharing info.;)

[Kitty]

According to WLOX News, some stations on the Gulf Coast have already run out of gasoline.

[Scarlett O'Hara]

Thanks so much for all the information........some of us really appreicate it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guru]

It's just the trend Aaron, despite what you may think.

[Remington]

According to WLOX News, some stations on the Gulf Coast have already run out of gasoline.

There's always the fear of that happening when someone hits the panic button and everyone goes to fill up even if they still have 3/4 of a tank of gas. I should get to empty by Friday or Saturday and will fill up then.

[jmb]

Rob, I appreciate the heads up. Thanks. :)

[Maggie-Doodle]

non essentials is what the report was about Ted. I'm telling you that Essentials are starting to leave now. Non Essentials leave, we don't paint handrails. Essentials leave, we don't pump oil.

I leave this thread to it's own, hating that it started debate when all I was trying to do was save the members of this site a buck or two.

THANK YOU for the tip....I for one really appreciate the info. It "may" not suppose to run the price up but when storm news comes it just about always does! Like it or not, agree with it or not...it is fact for the most part!

I was gonna stop this morning and top my tank but didn't, suppose I will go first thing in the morning and do so...just to be on the safe side!


I need to fill up, so I suppose I'll go and do that. I'm supposed to be in Ocean Springs gettin' my hair did on Saturday. Think y'all can make it hold off that long? :smt118

Yeah and we got the Parkhaven Neighborhood fall block party on Sat. We have done tons of work for this sucker...I pray it holds off until at least Sunday.

[Kitty]

Actually, I don't believe any gas stations have reopened on Hwy. 90, at least not in the Gulfport-Biloxi area, so fewer stations, coupled with understandable panic along the coastline, could result in some gas shortages there.

[RedRocker]

I don't see the knee-jerk reaction in rack prices yet. Racks for tomorrow's deliveries went up, but just a couple cents.

[Hermione]

Good idea to stay gassed up all through hurricane season. I try not to go below half a tank.

[Guru]

The little wind storm when I left town the other day was not cause for discussion but things do change and like Hermione said, better to stay stocked through hurricane season, it's just a good idea.
Myself I just hope for the best, plan for the worst. It's just a matter of being prudent. And, no website in a small town will cause global panic, I think we will be allright discussing it here :D

[EricStratton]

Why do people believe that the oil that comes out of the Gulf makes a difference? 200,000 barrels is 1% of the daily production of oil.

You just know everything about everything, don't you? I would find it burdensome to be an expert in every field.....oil, computers, sports, etc....

[Maggie-Doodle]

Good idea to stay gassed up all through hurricane season. I try not to go below half a tank.

I don't like for my tank to get lower than half anytime...it doesn't cost anymore to fill it up at half than when it gets totally empty...at least the sticker shock isn't nearly as bad for me. :)

[Panhandle]

Hi Folks,
I work for one of the Major oil companies out here in West Texas. Robert is correct. The gasoline pricing formula will always raise the price of the market whenever there is a threat. Unfortunately it always seems to rise quickly and fall back so s l o w .

Before any of you join all my other friends in complaining to me about gasoline pricing, I'll let you know that I drive 40 miles one way to work. These prices are killing me too!

[Guru]

Good idea to stay gassed up all through hurricane season. I try not to go below half a tank.

* Damn good idea! Matter of fact I think I will mix a toddy and go out on the back porch and get gassed RATNOW!

[RedRocker]

The hard thing for jobbers, the guys that own the local stations, is that when something like this blows up, they fill their tanks .... usually at the higher prices. If the price drops, you want to sell that gas at a profit before you refill with lower priced product and drop the pump price. You see on TV that the price has dropped .... but WHERE???

[Hermione]

* Damn good idea! Matter of fact I think I will mix a toddy and go out on the back porch and get gassed RATNOW!

That wasn't exactly what I meant, but on such a nice evening, if I had a back porch to go out on, and a nice chilled bottle of white wine, well . . .

[BelieveInHim]

I believe that oil that comes out of the gulf makes the difference for several reasons:

1. It's here, it's stored and it's easy accessible in the event of an emergency or the middle east, venezuala, etc., ever refusing to sell to us.
2. There is no dependence on another country or entity for the gulf oil.
3. It does not come on a ship into a port from a foreign country.
4. It provides the jobs and futures of millions of Americans.

My family's income is dependent on oil. My husband is on a drill ship half the year supporting me and our children. He has given us a very good living and works very hard to continue to do so. My father worked for Exxon, he provided us with a very good living and Exxon has provided him with very good retirement and health benefits. So yes, I am biased.

What I don't understand is why people think that the Oil Co. are just out to take advantage of Americans. Does anyone ever consider the billions of dollars in taxes that are reaped from drilling and production alike? The billions that are spent because not one drop of rainwater can enter the gulf and other ecology issues? (Which I support, but you really can't fathom how much it cuts out of profit.) Does anyone consider the billions that are paid in salaries and benefits to the workers go to help the economy? What about the millions in endowment scholarships for the advancement of young people? Why only the negative? I can only believe it is because it's easier to follow the controversal news makers and not do their own research.

Having lived my life being around "Big Oil" and "Drilling", there are many sides never talked about, never reported. Do a little research, see what they have done for America and then weigh it against the bad. In the meantime, please remember that when you fill up your tank, there are millions of men and women that are working hard for it to be possible for you.

[RGDoherty]

Welcome to the site by the way!

[Guru]

Yeah, what he said, welcome. And thanks for showing your informed mind.

[Panhandle]

I could feel a little pain for the task before the jobbers as they work to keep the pricing in check. BUT, Where I live the same company has gasoline priced 15 cents per gallon higher, 18 miles down the road from where I live. There is NO reason that anyone with half a brain could believe that delivery cost is that big of a factor. These guys have decided that they could "get it" and they are. Those of us that work for the "majors" take a beating from our friends, while the jobber pockets much more than we do.

[TheKing]

Right, and don't you think these threads fuel that? There's no reason to worry about gas prices when a hurricane enters the Gulf. If the entire gulf stopped giving us oil, it's still only 8% of the total.

I agree 100%.

These 'omg buy fuel now' threads is but a small part of the irrationality of humans that exacerbates the problem.

When the traders look at the data, after tehy see the run-up of demand for yesterdays fuel when they decide to set prices today, they are going to take in account the 'omg buy fuel now' bunch as part of the demand and prices are gonna go up a extra nickel.

So at the end of the day, yeah gas is gonna go up a little bit more than likely, as it always does. But freaking out and everybody buying all at once will only show increased demand data and cause the problem to be worse.

So please, for the love of god, save me a nickel and buy gas as you normally will.

After all, I like nickels.

Oh, and drill ANWR.

[Guru]

Take notes during historical events.
It's a done deal.
I'm not saying I agree with the trend.

[Hermione]

Here's the thing about "jumping the gun" by rushing out to the grocery or gas station at the first raindrop. You get your stuff and then you're out of the way of other people getting theirs. If nothing happens, well, you have a full tank of gas and extra food in the pantry. If something does happen, you're one less person in a gas or grocery line, one less person to be helped, and maybe in a position to offer help instead.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

Well, I appreciate the spirit of this thread, it is aimed at helping people. Nonetheless, the question to be asked is, are we really helping others by encouraging individuals to rush the fuel supply?

The only problem I have with the whole thing is by doing this we encourage very sudden, large demand spikes in a market with insufficient surplus to handle it. Thus, by starting the "rush to fuel" fanfare, we reduce availability of a commodity that otherwise we would have had plenty of had everyone not rushed for it all at once.. Just a thought.

[Pirate_129]

Bad weather triggers oil production cut
The Associated Press


NEW ORLEANS — Just over a quarter of the Gulf of Mexico’s daily oil production had been closed off today as forecasters kept an eye on an area of disturbed weather that could develop into a tropical depression.


http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070920/NEWS/70920030

[RGDoherty]

Thanks Pirate. I noted that not once in that artical did they mention they found about about it from a posting board. Perhaps I was able to save folks a coupla bucks without upsetting the World Market crude price.

[LipsofanAngel]

As soon as I get my car from the tire shop at 5:30, I'm stopping to fill up... course I don't have a choice. I'm on E and I gotta be on the road tomorrow for work!!

And whether or not our oil supply actually is effected by hurricanes in the gulf, y'all are right- prices go up regardless. I don't consider it to be panicking, but just plain common sense to go ahead and fill up before the prices sky rocket.

[Ted]

HiYa Rob.:smt001

We're not debating it.
You gave us the heads up, which we greatly appreciate, and now we're gathering and sharing info.;)

Update: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/201956.shtml?