Iowa Caucus Vbookie

[noway]

Iowa Caucus vbookie Thursday Jan 3rd.. Thread will close at 6:00 PM

[virgo]

Where are all the political junkies? :)

[Conveyor Belt]

That poll smells of Beaver... LOL!

We'll see what happens tonight. I'm excited. I LOVE politics!

[CircusRide]

The Hawkeye Cauceye! Obama and Romney win.

[jewelms]

I think Obama and Huckabee may win this one.

[fuzzis]

Zogby (pollster) is saying Obama and Huckabee (http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/).

[TDaleBeavers]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7682.html

This report says Fred Thompson may drop of the race and endorse McCain if Thompson doesn't finish a strong third.

Noway, hate to pick on you buddy, but Mike Huc(k)abee? John Mc(C)ain? Richard (Rudy) Giuliani? Hil(l)ary Clinton?

[TDaleBeavers]

The thing about caucuses though is that they are largely unpredictable by their rules, and arguably, unfair. The caucus is held at a set time (I think 6:00 or 7:00 p.m.) and if you aren't inside the caucus precinct at that that time, the doors are closed and you can't participate. If you have to work at that time and can't afford to take a night off from work -- too bad! If you serve in the military, forget voting absentee! Add in the cold weather, and you have a turnout which is much less than a regular election, in which voters have from 7:00 am until 7:00 p.m. (or whatever time frame) to go vote.

The second wrinkle is this is that when a candidate gets less than 15 percent of the vote at any precinct caucus, they are dropped from consideration, and there is a second round of voting. Assuming Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, or Duncan Hunter doesn't get 15 percent of the vote at a particular precinct (or even Huckabee or Romney for that matter) where do their votes go? Those switchovers in the second round will likely determine the final outcome, as Richardson, Biden, Kookovich, and Dodd supporters will on the Democratic side.

[fuzzis]

The thing about caucuses though is that they are largely unpredictable by their rules, and arguably, unfair. The caucus is held at a set time (I think 6:00 or 7:00 p.m.) and if you aren't inside the caucus precinct at that that time, the doors are closed and you can't participate. If you have to work at that time and can't afford to take a night off from work -- too bad! If you serve in the miliatary, forget voting absentee! Add in the cold weather, and you have a turnout which is much less than a regular election, in which voters have from 7:00 am until 7:00 p.m. (or whatever time frame) to go vote.

The second wrinkle is this is that when a candidate gets less than 15 percent of the vote at any precinct caucus, they are dropped from consideration, and there is a second round of voting. Assuming Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, or Duncan Hunter doesn't get 15 percent of the vote at a particular precinct (or even Huckabee or Romney for that matter) where do their votes go? Those switchovers in the second round will likely determine the final outcome, as Richardson, Biden, Kookovich, and Dodd supporters will on the Democratic side.

You're actually describing the DEMOCRATIC procedure. The Republicans are a simple straw poll, the results of which are sent to the state party.

How the Iowa caucus works (http://www.iowacaucus.biz/IA_Caucus_Howitworks.html).

[TDaleBeavers]

I guess that part confused me...I've seen some polls which have asked likely voters who their second choice is on the Republican side as well, so that made me believe that both sides operate under the same rules.

For true political junkies, there's a computer game you can download for $19.95 called President Forever in which you pick a candidate, win your parties nomination, through all of the primaries and caucuses, and then run in the general election. You can run as one of the current candidates, or you can "turn on" candidates who chose not to run (i.e. Newt Gingrich, Sen. Allen of Va). I actually won last night with Allen over Hillary Clinton with approximately 320 electoral votes.

It's a fun game with strategy, money, advertinsg, dealmaking, scandals and delegate counts all part of it.

[IGID]

For true political junkies, there's a computer game you can download for $19.95 called President Forever in which you pick a candidate, win your parties nomination, through all of the primaries and caucuses, and then run in the general election. You can run as one of the current candidates, or you can "turn on" candidates who chose not to run (i.e. Newt Gingrich, Sen. Allen of Va). I actually won last night with Allen over Hillary Clinton with approximately 320 electoral votes.

It's a fun game with strategy, money, advertinsg, dealmaking, scandals and delegate counts all part of it.:zelfmoord

[Conveyor Belt]

I guess that part confused me...I've seen some polls which have asked likely voters who their second choice is on the Republican side as well, so that made me believe that both sides operate under the same rules.

For true political junkies, there's a computer game you can download for $19.95 called President Forever in which you pick a candidate, win your parties nomination, through all of the primaries and caucuses, and then run in the general election. You can run as one of the current candidates, or you can "turn on" candidates who chose not to run (i.e. Newt Gingrich, Sen. Allen of Va). I actually won last night with Allen over Hillary Clinton with approximately 320 electoral votes.

It's a fun game with strategy, money, advertinsg, dealmaking, scandals and delegate counts all part of it.

Dude, that is SO up your alley, but not that many people's. I almost agree with IGID and his :zelfmoord, but I know how you are and can see how you'd really get into something like that.

Did you try running as yourself?

[TDaleBeavers]

No, you can actuall run in either the 2000, 2004 or 2008 campaign...there is a candidate editor, which I just discovered, but no I haven't gone there!

The 2008 candidates (besides those on the ballot today) include:

GOP
Newt Gingrich (GA)
former Sen. George Allen (VA)
former Sen. Bill Frist (TN)

Democrats
former VP Al Gore
Sen. John Kerry (MA)
Gen. Wesley Clark
Gov. Tom Vilsack (IA)
Sen. Evan Byah (IN)
Gov. Mark Warner (VA)

In 2004, you have the option of creating Colin Powell to take on President Bush in the primary. On the Demo side in 2004, your main option is to add Gore into the mix.

Ok, no more myhattiesburg suicides please.

[CircusRide]

If you win, can you gain control of the military and nuke the middle east? That would be awesome!!

[TDaleBeavers]

Lol...no but you can make your candidate's platform call for basically that.

[Kitty]

Instead of Fantasy Football, it's Fantasy Election. :-D

[Conveyor Belt]

According to MyHattiesburg vbookie jinx rules, looks like Edwards will win.

[aaron]

And all other candidates will tie for second.

[TDaleBeavers]

By the way there is a free trial version of the President Forever game that takes you about through the South Carolina primary (which is a few weeks from now)..it's worth checking out even if you don't buy the full version.

Fox News "Entrance Polls" show Huckabee 33% - 23% over Romney..with Thompson and McCain battling for third. Early numbers suggest Obamalama leading with Clinton and Edwards close behind.

[TDaleBeavers]

Fox News had projected Mike Huckabee the winner in Iowa!!!!!

Huckamania rules the day!!!

[TDaleBeavers]

Very tight on the Demo side:

56 percent in:

Obama 34%
Edwards 32%
Clinton 31%

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080103/NEWS/80103048/-1/caucus

[TDaleBeavers]

Fox has projected Obama the Demo winner in Iowa.....TAKE THAT HILLARY!!!

Updated Des Moines Register numbers (69% of Demos)
Obama 35%
Edwards 31%
Clinton 31%

GOP (40 percent)
Huckabee 31%
Romney 23%

[TDaleBeavers]

Big Repudiation for Hillary Clinton tonight

90% of Demo vote in

Obama 37%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 30% (Edwards has slightly more state delegates)

GOP (72% in)
Huckabee 28,762 34%
Romney 21,213 25%
Thompson 11,522 14%
McCain 11,281 14%
Paul 8,549 10%
Giuliani 3,053 4%

Noway, still to close to call third...less than 250 votes dividing McCain and Thompson

[TDaleBeavers]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=465 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class="cand bord_b"> Huckabee (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#1187)
</TD><TD class=bord_b>31,508
</TD><TD class=bord_b>34%
</TD><TD class=bord_b>0
</TD><TD class=report rowSpan=7>78%
reporting
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD> </TD><TD class="cand bord_b">Romney (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#893)
</TD><TD class=bord_b>23,682
</TD><TD class=bord_b>25%
</TD><TD class=bord_b>0
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD class="cand bord_b">McCain (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#1701)
</TD><TD class=bord_b>12,520
</TD><TD class=bord_b>14%
</TD><TD class=bord_b>0
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD class="cand bord_b">Thompson (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#57302)
</TD><TD class=bord_b>12,484
</TD><TD class=bord_b>13%
</TD><TD class=bord_b>0
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD class="cand bord_b">Paul (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#302)
</TD><TD class=bord_b>9,132
</TD><TD class=bord_b>10%
</TD><TD class=bord_b>0
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD class="cand bord_b">Giuliani (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#32884)
</TD><TD class=bord_b>3,321
</TD><TD class=bord_b>4%
</TD><TD class=bord_b>0
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD class="cand ">Hunter (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#155)
</TD><TD class="">395
</TD><TD class="">0%
</TD><TD class="">0
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Sorry this doesn't copy and paste well....MCain has moved slightly into 3rd place.