Contraflow and the Impacts on Hattiesburg

[Tully Mars]

With what is shaping up to be a very busy hurricane season getting into full swing I am curious to get everyone's opinion on the contraflow agreement that we have with Louisiana. If you are not familiar with the plan, it calls for making all four lanes of I-59 north-bound from the Mississippi - Louisiana state line to about Ellisville in an attempt to ease evacuation efforts from New Orleans. The plan would kick in if a Category 3 storm directly threatens New Orleans.

If you remember the evacuation activity during Ivan last year you will remember that 49 was gridlocked throughout the Hattiesburg area. Imagine a couple of hundred-thousand people trying to get north from the Mississippi Coast and add to that another 1/4 of a million or so people trying to evacuate north from New Orleans...all converging on Hattiesburg. I know for a fact that even if Camp Shelby was not currently being used as a mobilization center, we do not have nearly enough shelter space for that volume of people. I also have concerns about how that level of evacuation would affect the ability of our local emergency services personnel to deal with local issues. I can only imagine 59 being gridlocked from Pearl River County to Forrest County with 100+ MPH winds and flood level rains. It would be nearly impossible for emergency services to reach someone on the interstate in the event of a roadside emergency.

On the other hand, I don't know that there is a better solution. What are your thoughts?

[aaron]

Well, they should do it for a certain time period. 49/59 was gridlocked last year the day before the hurricane, but wasn't that bad the day of. I would publicize a particular time when they were going to open it up and encourage people to leave during those times.

[2002usmgrad]

I think it would be a good idea to have I-59 4 lanes. During Ivan I was coming home from the coast. It took me 5 hours to get home on 49. One thing I thought might help is to have 49 be four lane as well from 98 to 59 for the time that people from the Coast and Mobile would be evacuating. You would still be able to cross at 4th street, 7th street and broadway if you needed to get across 49 to the other side of town. I know that would have solved a lot of problems, especially when you don't have all those lights stoping everyone.

[Tully Mars]

Well, they should do it for a certain time period. 49/59 was gridlocked last year the day before the hurricane, but wasn't that bad the day of. I would publicize a particular time when they were going to open it up and encourage people to leave during those times.

I believe that is exactly what is called for. I only see one real flaw with that part of the plan...There will be many who will be reluctant to evacuate until the last minute.

The biggest concern that I have with the plan is its potential impact on Hattiesburg and surrounding areas in terms of the ability to deliver local services, provide police protection, access from one end of town to the other by EMS and other emergency service providers. We could be looking at a significant disruption of many aspects of normal life here if the plan were ever fully implemented.

But again, I certainly do not claim to have a better alternative.

[aaron]

The 49 route should bypass Hattiesburg using 59 really.

[2002usmgrad]

The biggest concern that I have with the plan is its potential impact on Hattiesburg and surrounding areas in terms of the ability to deliver local services, provide police protection, access from one end of town to the other by EMS and other emergency service providers. We could be looking at a significant disruption of many aspects of normal life here if the plan were ever fully implemented.

But again, I certainly do not claim to have a better alternative.

Well, you could always to stop the traffic flow on 49 for the ambulance, fire, and police if needed. I know when I did arrive the back roads I did take were empty. I think everyone who lives in Hattiesburg knew not to go out.

[Sir Mickey Mouse]

The Weather Channel and www.nws.noaa.gov (http://www.nws.noaa.gov) (The National Weather Service) both have this bad boy hitting Mobile and moving into our part of Mississippi - still as a hurricane.

[Tully Mars]

The 49 route should bypass Hattiesburg using 59 really.

Actually, according to the plan as I understand it there would be no access onto 59 from the other exits as the idea is to move traffic on 59 as smoothly as possible. I don't think that the plan would allow for those on 49 to bypass Hattiesburg on 59.

[noway]

Has the contraflow ever been tested? I have never heard them say that okay we will go from the state line to ellisville or laurel or moselle? If they make all fou r lanes north bound to ellisville then I think Hattiesburg will be spared. Hwy 49 was the problem I 59 was moving pretty good. HPD had the right idea keeping all access to H 49 closed and traffic north bound moving. I dont think there is an answer to the problem. Hattiesburg isn't called the hub for nothing.

[aaron]

Work it like a stoplight :) I guess someone using a lot of taxpayer money has thought about this for several months, so I guess I'll let them handle it.

[Tully Mars]

Quoted from WLOX.com
Mississippi and Louisiana officials hope an exercise next week will answer some questions about how to evacuate the New Orleans area during a major hurricane.
"This will be a hurricane evacuation exercise which will give us a chance to work out evacuation problems,'' said Amy Carruth, spokeswoman for the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency.

Mississippi and Louisiana have agreed to turn all four lanes of Interstate 59 into a one-way highway out of New Orleans if a category 3 hurricane threatens. A hurricane reaches category 3 status when it has sustained winds of 111 mph to 130 mph.

Using Interstate 59 as an evacuation route - called contraflow - would funnel thousands of evacuees into the Hattiesburg area and would create massive problems, said Terry Steed, Forrest County Emergency Management Agency director.

One of the challenges is the loss of Camp Shelby as a shelter because it is now a mobilization site for National Guard troops.

"I am concerned because we need some kind of plan on what to do with the people when they get here,'' Steed told the Hattiesburg American editorial board Tuesday.

Steed said he's concerned with how to get emergency vehicles on I-59 if all four lanes are northbound. He also had questions about evacuation points, security at shelters and if the state will get a pre-landfall emergency declaration, which would free up additional resources.

Carruth said there is a comprehensive plan already in place for handling traffic if the contraflow plan is put into action by the governor.

"We are updating our shelter plan now,'' Carruth said. "We revise our hurricane plan every year because of the growth on the Gulf Coast and New Orleans.''

She said at the same time the contraflow plan is enacted, the governor will request a pre-landfall federal declaration which would open the door to getting resources into the state before the hurricane hits.

Carruth said it is up to local jurisdictions to develop plans for emergency services and shelters in their counties.

"We will supply what they need, but they have to tell us what that is,'' Carruth said. "If they need 60 law enforcement officers, we will supply that.''

(Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

[Sir Mickey Mouse]

Does our Mayor have a plan for this?

[Tully Mars]

Sorry guys, I stand corrected. I just checked the latest version of the plan on MDOT's website and the preferred option has the contraflow ending at the I-59/Highway 98 interchange.

The entire plan, including maps can be viewed at http://www.gomdot.com/cetrp/contraflow_plan.pdf

[wilebill]

We're blessed and cursed at the same time because "All roads lead to Hattiesburg". I guess we'll just have to deal with it, but I will admit that I was caught off guard when Ivan came through. I tried to cross 49 via Hardy St. that one night, not realizing that everybody and their brother was on the highway that night until I got to the stoplight and the roadblock.

[2002usmgrad]

You know, I didn't know they had 49 blocked to traffic. I just assumed that since it was soo freaking slow after 98 that it must have been because of all the lights. I exited at Richburg road, I think, and took that back way. But I think that's even more reason for have 49 be northbound on both sides for a designated time.

[wilebill]

Just in case anyone's interested, here's a link to NOAA's hurricane site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Good maps on Dennis available.

[noway]

"All roads lead to Hattiesburg" by wilebill

Thats the problem I 59 H 49 H 98 H 11 all come through Hattiesburg.

I found this on the wlox.com site::

Advertising alternate routes is part of Mississippi's revamped evacuation system to alleviate congestion on U.S. 49, a major north-south route from the coast casinos and beaches to Jackson and other points north.

During Ivan, traffic slowed to a crawl in Hattiesburg, hampered by traffic lights. Bob Chapman of the Mississippi Department of Transportation said traffic officials in Hattiesburg and Gulfport will now alleviate bottlenecks by extending green-light time.

Chapman said preliminary steps are being taken in anticipation of Dennis, including increased manpower and filling gasoline tanks.

Louisiana's major evacuation change was contraflow, critical lane reversals on interstate highways.

Lt. Lawrence McLeary of the state police said previously Louisiana didn't evacuate in phases, but now evacuations begin with the low-lying areas before moving up to the next tier.

McLeary said if Dennis doesn't directly threaten Louisiana, officials will have a mock evacuation drill on July 21 to test the system.

"But if Dennis comes through, we'll do the real thing,'' he said.

[ynotme297]

actually all of these ideas were addressed at an e/m/c meeting not long after ivan came through. it has not had a dry run, but the plan is in effect. the 4 lane concept has been looked very close, and i think it would be put into place if and when needed. also, they have to have a plan for emergency equiptment to be able to go southbound. i know at one point last time, they had communications set up with n/o for this. i saw several truck loads of generators and medical stuff trying to go south and to wait for clearance before they continued.

[reverand]

The plan Contraflow, is not a name that comes to my mind

Contrafool is the name I would label the design,



They can’t pull the wool over a preacher eyes with that plan of escape

Louisiana should build their own highway, when the wind escalates.



They can spend Millions of dollars, for that Mardi Gras love feast

But don’t have a dime, when it comes to an escape route that is best.



Glory Glory

[lamarrebel]

Reverend, ...the man, the myth, the legend of myhattiesburg.com poetry....good to see back!

[chopperglide]

how do they man that thing with troopers?

[Tully Mars]

how do they man that thing with troopers?

They don't...the state does not have enough resources to patrol the area while the evacuations are taking place. Personnel will be stationed at key interchanges but as I understand it, there will not be any patrolling activities per se.

In addition, there will be no room for patrol vehicles, or any other emergency service vehicles to access the interstate itself. Imagine this, the interstate will essentially be bumper to bumper traffic with all four lanes heading north. The only access south will be highway 11. Even if emergency services were to attempt to use the shoulders of the interstate they would only get as far as the nearest bridge.

[wilebill]

I scanned through the MDOT plan, and if I remember correctly they plan to have the MHSP helicopter fly over the hiway to monitor traffic and such. They would also have MDOT personnel and Safety Officers at each interchange and MHSP officers scattered around. All south-bound traffic would use HWY 11, which would also be used for emergency vehicles. I'm sure Rescue 7 would also be put into service if need be. Maybe Camp Shelby would also spare a helo or 2.

The real fun would be where the contraflow stops. They'd have to have some serious traffic control there, probably someone with enough firepower to enforce the rules. :smt071

[Tully Mars]

I scanned through the MDOT plan, and if I remember correctly they plan to have the MHSP helicopter fly over the hiway to monitor traffic and such.


I am not sure that is a well thought out part of the plan. I don't think that I would want to pilot a helicopter over the interstate in 100+ MPH winds.

I know in theory contraflow would be over and done by the time that a hurricane made landfall but in reality...

[SoMissTV]

Actually, the plan utilizes aerial coverage only in favorable weather conditions.

[wilebill]

So what scenario would there be a hurricane evacuation in good weather?

Would that be a pre-emptive evacuation? :)

[Tully Mars]

So what scenario would there be a hurricane evacuation in good weather?

Would that be a pre-emptive evacuation? :)

Thank you Wilebill, that is exactly my point. We are talking about folks from New Orleans here. They are not going to leave until the last minute and then every single one will have their trucks, dogs, boats and guns. That should make 59 and interesting place to be.:D

Kidding aside, excellent point Wilebill. If a Category 3 or greater storm directly threatens N.O. there will be a very small window of opportunity to evacuate between the time that forecasters know that N.O. will be hit and the point when it is no longer possible to get out of N.O., mainly because of the very low elevation of the city. I would venture to say that the majority of residents will wait until the latter half of that window of opportunity...creating a scenario of 59 being gridlocked in horrible weather.

[wilebill]

Thank you Wilebill, that is exactly my point. We are talking about folks from New Orleans here. They are not going to leave until the last minute and then every single one will have their trucks, dogs, boats and guns. That should make 59 and interesting place to be.:D

But you really can't blame anyone for waiting till the last minute since hurricanes do change their path quite often.

Do you remember the hurricane about 10 or 15 years ago that was in the gulf and moved towards Mobile, then backtracked to the west, then turned again and finally hit Mobile? It was cutting donuts in the gulf.:rain:

[Tully Mars]

If I were in N.O. and it looked like a Cat. 3 was bearing down I think I would lead the pack out. N.O. is basically below sea level and with the proximity of Lake Ponchatrain...I guess the choice is would you rather drown in N.O. or get stuck on 59 with a bunch of road rage induced maniacs. I am not sure which is the better option here.

[aaron]

lotta traffic on 59 going north at 12 tonight. Probably half getting off at 98/Hardy, and the others keeping on north.

[ynotme297]

65 in al. will contraflow from just north of mobile to montgomery. it may still be a mess b/c most folks will wait till the last minute to leave. n/o and the coast will wait also.