Hurricane Wilma

[wilebill]

Uh-oh, there's another one out there. :smt119

Looks like it's coming into the gulf and will be a hurricane by Monday, south of Cuba, then take a turn to the north in our general direction.

Still looks like a week or more away so it's anybody's guess where it will actually go.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5+gif/231353W_sm.gif
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/231353.shtml?5day?large)

[aaron]

wow, I thought for sure it had cooled enough to shut these things down.

[wilebill]

It's not so much the air temperature as it is the water temperature that fuels these things. I think the water is still pretty warm.

Doesn't hurricane season last until the end of November?

[Ted]

It's not so much the air temperature as it is the water temperature that fuels these things. I think the water is still pretty warm.
You are, indeed, correct, Sir. Current models and theories indicate that it's the thermal energy stored in the water that feeds the beasts.
The surface temp of the Gulf has decreased a bit since the first week of October, but there is still a lot of energy there.
Here (http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0) are some surface temp maps of the Gulf. There appears to be a 'hot spot' around 24°N X 85°W that seems to be maintaining its integrity, but is slowly cooling down. It was about 85°F on 8 Oct. and is about 81°F this morning.
....end of November?Yep. There have been some suggestions by researchers to extend it to the end of December.

[aaron]

Well, still seems rather cool, this is definitely one to watch just for the rain possibilities though if nothing else.

[Sir Mickey Mouse]

www.accuweather.com has it going to either Mexico or Florida... but NOAA, usually pretty good at predictions, has it aimed at NOLA/Waveland/Bay St. Louis... I hope accuweather is right. Maybe we need to call TWC to ask where Jim Cantore has reservations next Sunday.

[aaron]

TWC hasn't said much about the track yet, very strange.

[fuzzis]

TWC hasn't said much about the track yet, very strange.

From what I was hearing this morning, they were saying that because the storm is moving so very slowly right now, it's difficult to make predictions about where it might be headed?

:smt102

From weather underground:

http://tinyurl.com/dsz2y

fuzzis

[wilebill]

Right now they're showing it heading for south FL. But as we all know, it's liable to go anywhere in a week.

[wilebill]

It became a hurricane today, so I guess it's time to change the topic title.

Predictions still have it going toward FL, but don't bet the farm on it.

[noway]

this storm just made it to a CAT 4 150 mph.. The weather channel reporting they have never seen anything like this before.. it just blew up so quick... 901 mlb dropped all of sudden

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.

[jmb]

It's been confirmed: Hurricane Wilma, with a pressure of 882 mb, is the most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin. Wilma, after undergoing a stunning intensifcation overnight, is now a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane packing sustained winds of 175 mph. The eye of the violent storm is now following a wobbling WNW track through the western Caribbean with a turn toward the NW expected within the next 24 hours.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Wilma is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane through Thursday. The projected track of the storm takes it through the Yucatan Channel into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. After that, Wilma is expected to come under the influence of westerly winds aloft blowing across the Gulf. That should hurl the hurricane toward the Florida Peninsula, probably the southern part of the peninsula, this weekend. Wilma is expected to be weakening by then, but weakening is a relative term and Wilma may still be a major hurricane (winds over 110 mph) when it makes landfall.

[gine]

FROM www.nhc.noaa.gov

...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

But, as somene stated earlier - things change- and after all, it's not like anybody is driving that darned thing!

[Sir Mickey Mouse]

Maybe we should all get together, line Beach Blvd. (or what's left of it) and start blowing as hard as we can to be *sure* it turns to Florida.

[aaron]

I think Florida is screwed. The best thing anyone could hope for is that is turns out to be a Dennis.

[fuzzis]

I thought I saw that they were predicting it to be a Category 2 by the time it hits FL?

fuzzis

[justme]

Let's just hope the front that is pushing it sharply to the right stays on the right tract. If it doesn't then it would likely move more our way or towards the panhadle. NOT GOOD.


I am stunned by the number of category 4 and 5 storms that have stirred up out there this year. I am facinated by the weather and have been tracking storms since George many years ago. Kinda freaky!

[noway]

yep 21 named storms 12 hurricanes and I think they said 4 CAT 5's.... 6 hurricanes hit land fall

[happydamyankee]

Let's just hope the front that is pushing it sharply to the right stays on the right tract. If it doesn't then it would likely move more our way or towards the panhadle. NOT GOOD.


What worries me is if you look at Wilma's path the past couple of days she's acting sorta nuts! Now I'll be the first to admit that being from the far north up until 7 years ago I don't have a whole bunch of hurricane knowledge but I ain't never seen one dance around like this one has. I worry she's going to dance south again and miss her jet stream out of the Gulf.

Another thing that has my radar on high is that over the last couple of years I've noticed that the hurricanes that have actually come ashore were very poorly predicted in the early path prediction. Look at Katrina, at noon on Friday they were saying she was a storm of no consequence and she was heading into the pan handle. I tuned it out at that point until my sister called me from Ohio in a panic on Saturday saying Katrina was heading our way. These storms this year just don't seem to want to act normal so I ain't breathing no sigh of relief until she's done gone. I would not be at all suprised to see her get a taste of the cold Atlantic and turn around and come back into the gulf for a second go round.

[wilebill]

Check out this satellite image (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html) from NOAA. Click on the "trop fcst pts" check box to see how it's actually tracking as compared to the forecast.

The eye is doing loop-de-loops out there. It looks like it's still unpredictable as to where it will actually go, so no one should let their guard down.

[noway]

I noticed that on the weather channel.. this has been the craziest hurricane season ever.... Just freaking amazing....

[just-Wynn]

Wilma could turn out to be as nasty as Wynn bent over naked looking @ you through his legs with a grin. :smt118

[Sir Mickey Mouse]

from www.nws.noaa.gov:


HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892
MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER
5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...
ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO
REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

[Fred Flintstone]

Has anyone seen my wife?

[wilebill]

Well, they haven't changed the track in the last day or so, so I guess they feel pretty confident about it.

Let's hope they're right this time.

[just-Wynn]

Has anyone seen my wife? Ooooohhh Yeah!!! :asshkr: :closed: :evil_fire

[2002usmgrad]

So, if the current track is right, that penisula will have a good 2 days of 145 mph winds, will there be anything left there after that?

[lamarrebel]

If they eyewall stays over the Yucatan Peninsula (land) for all of that time, the storm will deteriorate in strength. It'll be a tropical strom in 24 hours and will have to revive itself in the Gulf. The latest predictions I've heard is Cat 1, maybe Cat 2 at most when it reaches Florida.

[noway]

Stephanie Abrams is on TV.. Looking good in her WET suit... Rain dripping off her face... the wind blowing her over.. she is standing HOT while wilma makes landfall.. Hang in there Stephanie :smt054

[Sir Mickey Mouse]

from cnn

Wilma delivers blow to Florida

Speedy storm pummels state, moves into Atlantic

Monday, October 24, 2005; Posted: 4:05 p.m. EDT (20:05 GMT)


Wilma exposes the interior of a mobile home in Davie, Florida, on Monday.


WATCH Browse/Search
Assessing Wilma's damage in Naples (1:53)

Wilma uproots a tree in Miami (1:22)

Havana's worst storm in years (1:54)

RELATED
Audio Slide Show: Wilma slams ashore

• Hurricane tracker
• Blog:*Chasing the storm
• Gallery: Wilma's impact
• Gallery: Tale of the tape

WILMA RESPONSE
* More than 3,000 National Guardsmen mobilized; another 3,000 on alert
* More than 33,000 people in shelters
* 50 truckloads of ice, 50 truckloads of water, 5 truckloads of meals delivered to Homestead Air Force Base
* 100 truckloads of ice, 100 truckloads of water, 25 truckloads of meals ready at Jacksonville Naval Air Station
* 6 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams deployed to pre-stage in Orlando
* 6 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams on alert at their home bases.
-- Associated Press


HURRICANE WILMA
2 p.m. ET Monday
Location of storm eye: 100 miles northeast of West Palm Beach, Florida
Top winds: 115 mph
Latitude: 27.9 north
Longitude: 78.9 west
Source: National Hurricane Center

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NAPLES, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Wilma battered Florida for about six hours Monday with heavy rain, widespread flooding and damaging winds, before heading out to the Atlantic and regaining strength.

R. David Paulison, the acting head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said local officials are "reporting a lot of power outages, a lot of coastal flooding, a lot of broken windows in high-rise buildings, a lot of roofs that are going to need a lot of repair."

"We understand from the state, and our feedback from people in the field right now, it looks like Lee and Collier counties are the most heavily damaged," Paulison said. (Watch Wilma's damage in Florida -- 1:53)

Search-and-rescue teams were sent to the two southwestern counties, Paulison said, which are located near Wilma's point of landfall.

The storm made landfall as a powerful Category 3 hurricane at 6:30 a.m. ET about 22 miles south of Naples, the National Hurricane Center said. Its top winds were 125 mph.

Wilma raced across Florida as a downgraded Category 2 storm with top winds around 100 mph. By 12:30 p.m. ET, its center was over the Atlantic. The storm regained strength to Category 3 status, with 115-mph winds, the hurricane center said. (Watch Wilma uproot a tree in Miami -- 1:22)

Disaster medical teams were already in the Florida Keys, where storm surge flooding was reported.

Rural Glades County, inland from the southwestern coast, "is reporting significant damage to their mobile home parks," Paulison said. "So we'll be looking at those very carefully with our search-and-rescue teams."

Earlier, Gov. Jeb Bush warned people in hurricane-ravaged areas to remain indoors as long as possible. (Watch Bush warn Floridians -- 3:26)

Just hours after landfall, Wilma was blamed for the death of a Coral Springs man who was killed by a falling tree, according to the Broward County Emergency Management Agency.

Significant hurricane storm surge swamped Lake Okeechobee and parts of the southwestern coastline, where the highest surge occurred, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the hurricane center. "We are hearing about considerable flooding in the Florida Keys including Key West due to storm surge," he said.

'It's wicked'

Paul Tucchinio told the AP he was riding out the storm in a condo three blocks from the beach in Naples.

"I looked out our place and I saw a bunch of stuff flying by," Tucchinio told AP. "It sounds like someone threw a bunch of rocks against the boards. It's wicked." (Watch one woman ride the storm out -- 3:45)

Wilma is the eighth hurricane to hit the state in 15 months, and officials said they were concerned that thousands of people had ignored a mandatory evacuation order in the Florida Keys.

Sunday, "very few" residents of the Florida Keys heeded the evacuation order, said Billy Wagner, manager of the Monroe County Emergency Operations Center. On Monday, some Keys residents questioned their decisions to remain home. (Full story)

The Keys, just a quarter-mile wide in many places, are mostly between 4 to 6 feet above sea level.

CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras said Wilma would weaken on Monday evening, and "basically turn into a nor'easter-type system" off the northeastern United States, pushing wet, windy and cold air from the Atlantic into New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.

Havana rocked

Wilma flooded parts of Havana, Cuba, on Monday after its eye wall passed over the island nation. (Watch Havana wrestle with its worst storm in years -- 1:54)

Most of the downtown and central sections of the capital are under water -- up to six feet deep in some places -- and crews are rescuing people from windows and rooftops. (Full story)

Waves have been crashing over the city's sea wall.

Although nearly 500,000 people were evacuated from the country's western tip, evacuation orders for the capital weren't issued until after midnight while many people were sleeping.

Electricity was cut off in Havana on Sunday in advance of the storm.

Civil defense crews were busy using boats to rescue people, including rowboats from an amusement park that are normally used to ferry children.

The ground in western Cuba was already saturated from days of rain that began when Wilma passed to the south on its way to Mexico, where it pounded the Yucatan Peninsula for two days.

Four deaths were blamed on the storm in Mexico. (Watch how it may be a while before Cancun returns to normal -- 2:01)

[Sir Mickey Mouse]

Sorry about that... I copied and pasted from CNN but don't know how the commercials got in the middle of it! It won't let me go back in to edit!

[noway]

Man ole Man did yall see Stephanie Abrams this morning I just love that HAT look.. Also I thought CNN did a good... anderson cooper & john sorles(sp) they were doing it live on the beach.. Did anyone see AL Roker get blown over while some guy was holding his legs

[wilebill]

There's a clip up somewhere of Al getting blown down. It was pretty funny.

Actually, though, I'm getting tired of every wannabe news/weathercaster trying to get in on being in the middle of the "fury of the storm". Most of them don't have a clue about hurricanes other than what they themselves have seen on TV. They say and do the stupidest things while on the air. Then they go back to their nice little studio and house and tell about how bad it was, when in all reality it's the aftermath and dealing with it that's the hardest part.

One day one of them will get their head cut off by a piece of flying sheet metal and then they'll decide it might not be a good idea to do this anymore.:Headz: